Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
