Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
